Is it all doom or gloom? - Assessing the impacts of the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on agriculture and food security in Egypt

Fig. 1: The Great Renaissance Dam (Middle East Monitor)

For centuries the river Nile has been the elixir of life for millions of people living in the drylands of Egypt. The never-ending flow of water, bringing fertile silts and all-so-rare freshwater, has given birth to the ancient Egyptian culture that dominated the regions for centuries.

Due to its low annual rainfall and high evaporation rate Egypt is highly dependent on freshwater sources coming from the river Nile, whereas 90 % of its resources originate outside the Egyptian border (Gouda 2017). This puts Egypt in a particularly vulnerable position, as it´s agriculture is adapted to live in tune with the seasonal and trans-annual changes of the river discharge and it relies heavily on unrestricted accessibility of the Nile´s resources. This, however, was challenged when Ethiopia had announced to build one of the world´s largest dams, the Great Renaissance Dam (GERD) (see Fig.1), in 2011. The dam will give Ethiopia the power to control the downstream flow of the Blue Nile, which “contributes about 86% of the Nile waters” (Hamada 2017: 138). While the dam will allow Ethiopia´s agriculture to benefit from less flooding and the generation of clean power by the dam, agriculture and food industry in Egypt may be affected in completely different ways. 

According to Kahsay et. al. (2015) Egypt´s economy will be most vulnerable during the impounding period of the dam, especially during dry periods. Because of its location (see Fig. 2), power generated by the Aswan High Dam will be reduced due to water reduction in the upstream Nile (Kahsay et.al. 2014). Additionally, lower river discharge will decrease irrigation water supply for agriculture. Thus, agricultural land in both Upper Egypt and in the Nile Delta will decrease by over 20% (El-Nashar and Elyamany 2017) and food production, such as rice, wheat, crops, sugar cane and livestock will decrease significantly during this time period (Kahsay et.al. 2015). Furthermore, decreasing water levels in the Nile may cause further desertification of agricultural land (El-Nashar and Elyamany 2017). Impounding GERD´s reservoir will also lead to evaporation losses “which affect the NR water quantity and quality […] by increasing the Nile water salinity” (El-Nashar and Elyamany 2017) and water pollution. This may have a significant impact on wild life in the Nile floodplains and thereby may cause losses in the fishing industry (Elmaadhyand Mohammend 2017). At the same time, groundwater levels within the Nile basin will deplete, leading to further salinization and seawater intrusion, which may cause contamination of groundwater aquifers and thereby contaminating soil and water sources that are essential for farming (Elmaadhy and Mohammend2017). Elmaadhy and Mohammend (2017) suggest that “areas of about 2677 and 4675 km2 will experience seawater intrusion” (Elmaadhy and Mohammend 2017: 1238), while the whole extent of its impact is difficult to predict. 

Fig 2: Map showing location of the Great Renaissance Dam (Yale Environment 360)

These consequences may not only lead to a severe water crisis in Egypt, but can also significantly affect food security in the country. About 50 % of the population lives on agriculture in the Nile delta and Upper Nile region and their livelihoods will change greatly due to loss of agricultural land (Gouda 2017). This process may be intensified due to rapid population growth and increase of extreme weather conditions as a result of climate change. Thus, Egypt shows one of the lowest per capita share in agricultural land in the world, decreasing further (Gouda 2017). Furthermore, as agriculture makes out about 11.3% of the country`s total GDP, loss of agricultural productivity will decrease food exports and thereby affect Egypt´s economy (Gouda 2017). At the same time, in order to minimizing the increasing food deficit, Egypt will be more and more dependent on importing food. This may have socio-economic impacts, as food prices are likely to rise. Especially the livelihoods of the poor are affected, as they are most vulnerable to crop failures and rising prices, which may lead to an increase of migration (Gouda 2017).

Scientists agree, that the severity of these processes will depend on the length of the impounding period (Kahsay et.al. 2015; El-Nashar and Elyamany 2017). The longer the impounding, the slower the processes and the more time to adapt to changing environmental patterns (Kahsay 2015). In order to avoid drastic cuts in crop yields in the downstream countries, it is important that all actors affected by the consequences of the dam are included in decision-making processes e.g. by agreeing on operating rules in dry periods (El-Nashar and Elyamany 2017). During operating periods Egypt´s economy is less likely to be affected, as river flow is going to be rather constant. It might even benefit Egypt´s agriculture, as controlling the river flow, may also prevent flooding of agricultural land (Kahsay et.al. 2015). Nevertheless, water level depletion and soil degradation are long-term effects, whose consequences are difficult to predict and may continue even during operating periods. Still, the real impacts of the dam will yet have to be assessed.

To look at this through the lens of the alleged water crisis in Africa, it becomes clear that due to topographic, geologic and climatic conditions some countries or regions are more vulnerable to water shortages, which may nourish grounds for water conflicts on the African continent. Especially transboundary water resources have the potential of becoming a controversial subject between countries. Thus, trans-border negotiations and regulations including all actors affected are essential for avoiding one country´s economy profiting at the cost of the other. 

References:

El-Nashar, W.Y and A.H. Elyamany (2017) ‘Managing risks of the Grand Ethiopian RenaissanceDam on Egypt’ Ain Shams EngineeringJournal, n.a.

Gouda D.M. (2017) ‘The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Agriculture, and the Rural Poor inEgypt’, in Negm, A.M. and S. Abdel-Fattah (eds.) Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam versus Aswan High Dam, The Handbookof Environmental Chemistry, vol. 79, Cham: Springer International Publishing,197-230. 

Hamada, Y. (2017) Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam,its impact on Egyptian Agriculture and the Potential for Alleviating WaterScarcity, Environment and Policy, vol. 55. Cham: Springer InternationalPublishing. 

Kahsay, T.N., O. Kuik, R. Brouwer, P. van der Zaag (2015) ’Estimation of thetransboundary economic impacts of the Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam: Acomputable general equilibrium analysis’ WaterResources and Economics, 10, 14-30.

Mohammend, M.M and Elmaadhy, S.I. (2017) ‘Remote Sensing of the Grand Ethiopian RenaissanceDam: a hazard and environmental impacts assessment’ Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risks, 8,2,1225-1240.